Hasta La Ideas

Have we survived? Have we really put these dark days behind us and come out alive? So it might seem when you hear the news that the AIA‘s Architecture Billing Index is finally back to the levels it was at in August of 2008, right before the world fell apart. Granted, it’s only three points higher than it was back in late-August of this year, and at 46.1 it’s still below 50, indicating that there are still more building jobs finishing than starting, but it’s still a positive sign. Though certainly no one wants to make the mistake of thinking things are good before they rapidly plunge again, like what surprised everyone with back in July. Here’s a bit from the AIA’s always-leery-to-predict-anything Kermit Baker:

The increase in billings could be “an early signal towards a recovery for the design and construction industry,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.

“On the other hand, because we continue to get reports of architecture firms struggling in a competitive marketplace with a continued decline in commercial property values, it is far too early to think we are out of the woods.”

Does this all mean, short of just a couple months, that Marvin Malecha was right all along with his predictions late last year? After occasionally poking fun at his more happy vision for the future, this writer feels a little dumb in doubting him. But it’s hard to see any sunshine through a full year of gloom, Marvin. Please understand! Apologies to people we don’t know personally aside, if you want to read more about this latest uptick, the LA Times has some additional conversation with Baker about things maybe getting better.

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